Israel- Palestine Flare-Ups - The Perilous Tinderbox

With the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire, the latest round of the Israel-Palestinian conflict ended on May 21, 2021. The eleven-day firefight, bloodiest since 2014, left a trail of death and destruction. Recurrent conflicts between the two are essentially manifestations of two self-determination movements — the Jewish Zionist and Palestinian Nationalist projects—both claiming the same piece of real estate.

 Jewish Build-Up in Palestine.

            After his unsuccessful siege of Acre in 1799, Napoleon Bonaparte proposed a Jewish homeland in Palestine as a European stronghold in the region. Four decades later, the British carried this proposal forward to urge the Ottoman Sultan to open up Palestine to Jewish immigrants. Around 3000 then, wealthy benefactors began to sponsor Jews from Europe to establish settlements in Palestine to augment their numbers.  

       

            Soon after the First Zionist Congress in Basel, Switzerland, in 1897, Chaim Weizmann established a company in Jerusalem to buy land near Jaffa. Within three years, about 10,000 dunums (acres) of land were procured in northern Palestine's Marj Bin Amer region, forcing out 60,000 local farmers to accommodate fresh Jewish arrivals. Locals protested against mass immigration, and widespread violence ensued.

 

 Birth of Israel.            

            Following the  Allied victory in WW II in 1945 and holding German Third Reich responsible for executing six million Jews, world attention turned to Jews and Palestine. In 1947, allegedly under US pressure, the UN General Assembly adopted  Resolution No. 181 -the Two-State Solution-  to carve out a Jewish state from Palestine west of Jordan River, one housing Jews and the other Arabs.  Despite massive protests against the grant of  56% land to 5.5% of Jews residing in the area, Israel came into being on May 14, 1948.

 

Israeli Nationhood - Baptism by Fire.

            Israel and Palestine have a history chequered by six short but intense wars. No sooner than  Israel declared independence did the  Arab forces- from Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Seriya and Lebanon -occupy territories in southern and eastern Palestine. These areas were not apportioned to Israel by the UN. The war that followed forced 70,000 Palestinians to flee to the neighbouring Arab countries without any citizenship rights. While Israel remembers it as the War of Independence, the Palestinian Arabs call it Nakbah (Catastrophe) for the large-scale displacement.

            During the Suez Crisis in 1956,  the belligerents were back on the battlefield. With  Egypt nationalising the Suez Canal and denying   Israel access to the canal and Elat, Israel's only port, the latter invaded the Sinai Peninsula to clear Elat and the Suez Canal. Third time when Israel and Arab forces clashed was in the Six-Day War in 1967. Egypt, Jordan and Syria joined ranks with an intent to run over Israel. With massive air and ground assaults, Israel pushed back the Arabs and occupied  Golan Heights, Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula and West Bank. More importantly, it took control of Jerusalem.

 

            On October 6, 1973,  the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur that year, Israel was caught off guard by a coordinated attack by the Egyptian and Syrian forces across the Suez Canal and  Golan Heights. The war ended on October 26, 1973. Under the terms of the 1978 Camp David Accord,  Israel returned the entire Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, and, in return, Egypt recognised Israel's right to exist.

            After that,  Israel and  Lebanon fought two wars.  In the first instance, in 1982,  Israel decimated the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) stronghold in Beirut and southern Lebanon, and the second time, in 2006, it pushed back the Hezbollah assault.

Palestinian Uprisings - Intifada I & II.

            Besides six wars, Palestinians launched two Intifadas (Uprisings) against the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.  Intifada I, 1987- 93,  was largely spontaneous, with protestors primarily using rocks and Molotov cocktails. During Intifada II, launched in 2000, the Palestinians upgraded their attacks to suicide bombings, rocket attacks, and sniper fire, Israel matching these with even deadlier force.   This phase of  Intifada petered out in 2005 but not before more than 1,000 Israelis and 3,200 Palestinians perished in the uprising.

PLO, PA and Fatah.

            The PLO, established in 1964,  is the national representative of the Palestinian people. It runs the Palestinian National Authority (PA), the semi-autonomous government tasked to manage the Palestinian territories until the finalisation of a deal with Israel. Fatah, a secular nationalist political party, controls the PLO and PA.

            Initially, the PLO sought to destroy Israel and replace it with a Palestinian state. Mercurial Yasser Arafat, the founder of Fatah,  employed military tactics toward this end. This hard stance changed in 1993 when the PLO conceded Israel's right to exist in exchange for Israel recognising the former as the legitimate representative of Palestinians.

            The PLO's current chair is relatively moderate Mahmoud Abbas. He ensured the de-escalation of Intifada II. Because of his relentless efforts for a peaceful settlement,  Palestine has gained a non-member state status at the UN.

Hamas.

            Hamas, a Palestinian Suni Islamist politico-militant group, was founded in 1987.  It governs the Gaza Strip independent of the PA. In 2017 it revised its original charter to replace Israel with a Palestinian state to limit its new demand for a Palestinian State to the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

            Unity talks between Hamas and the PLO broke down repeatedly, precluding a unified PA, thus adversely impacting peace talks with Israel. Though the two sides reached a preliminary unity agreement in 2017, it remains unclear whether a united government is possible.           

US-Israel Friendship.

            So far, the US support for Israel is mainly because of a favourable public opinion, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby, and the country's ideological affinity with the Middle East's most stable democracy. The common interest of fighting Jihadism and, more importantly, control of the region's oil economy ties America closer to Israel.

            The range of American support for Israel is quite extensive. Over the years, the US has provided  Israel $118 billion in aid. Half of all the American UN Security Council vetoes blocked resolutions critical of Israel. Trump Administration's December 2017 decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital gave this relationship a further boost. At the height of the May 2021 conflict, the Biden administration supported Israel by asserting that Israel had a right to 'exist and defend' and an assurance that the US would 'replenish Israel's Iron Dome Air Defence System'. 

              However, the media reports suggest sympathy for Israel, post the recent Israel-Palestine conflict, is on the wane. Further, under pressure from some Democrats to take a harder line against Israel, Biden had to concede to the right of Palestinians to 'exist', reiterate commitment to a Two-State Solution, and promise humanitarian aid and reconstruction assistance for Gaza. 

May 2021 Conflict- Intifada III?

              During April-May 2021, Israel experienced the worst communal violence in years. The conflict erupted over a property dispute, dating back to 1948,  between the Palestinians and Jews in Sheikh Jarrah (East Jerusalem). Tensions rose sharply over the looming Israeli Supreme Court decision on whether to uphold the eviction of Palestinian families from their homes in strategically situated Sheikh Jarrah.

             The Muslims call the compound around the Al- Aqsa Mosque as Noble Sanctuary, while for the Jews, it is Temple Mount.  This area is the focal point of Palestinian anger over their fears of eviction out of Jerusalem.  The brutal Israeli police action against protesting Palestinians prompted Hamas to rocket-attack  Israel from Gaza.  Mutual rocket exchanges left 248 Palestinians and 12 Israeli dead; thousands were wounded and displaced.  

Uncertain Netanyahu.

            Benjamin Netanyahu's future as the Prime Minister of Israel is uncertain. In his four attempts so far, he failed to cobble up a coalition to continue as the PM. The Guardian's Jerusalem bureau chief observes, 'to form a collation, he (Netanyahu) needed to persuade several extremist right-wing lawmakers to join him. Israel watchers even accuse Netanyahu of pandering to Ben Gvir, a  Zionist ideologue, by instigating a crisis in Jerusalem to rally Israelis around his leadership.            

India - Tight Rope-Walk.

            Since 2014, India's position vis-à-vis Israel saw a marked shift. Firstly, the bilateral relations between the two countries were scaled up with the two PMs exchanging first-ever visits. Secondly, India has expressed its wish to de-hyphenate ties with Israel and Palestine and, thirdly, India changed its pro-Palestine stand to 'abstentions' at various fora in the UN.

            During the recent clashes, India, however, did a balancing act. It condemned violence both by Israel and Hamas,  appealed for ceasefire and resumption of stalled peace talks. This stand has irked Israel. That is why  India was not on the list of 24 countries Netanyahu thanked for support during the crisis. India has to perform a tight rope walk, balancing its energy requirements from the Middle East and its defence and intelligence reliance on Israel.

What Lies Ahead?

            The resolution of this conflict will depend on how the US administration plays its cards in future. For a durable peace in the region, more and more  Arab countries must normalise relations with Israel under the  Abraham Accords Agreements process. Israel, on its part, needs to realise it takes two to tango. Until that happens, the Israel-Palestine region would remain a perilous tinderbox on a short fuse.

(Indian Defence Review, May 26, 2021)

           

 

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