BJP’s Mired Kashmir Policy

           For its political greed, BJP abandoned its core ideology in Jammu & Kashmir and, in the bargain, revealed that it too practices same realpolitik as its political opponents do.  Riding on Modi’s popularity wave, state BJP coined slogan ‘Mission 44⁺’ that aimed at winning a majority in the assembly elections in 2014. Winning 25 seats was no mean an achievement. Unfortunately, BJP squandered this advantage by aligning with soft-separatist PDP whose voter base comprises of hardliners who also resented their party’s alliance with what they considered a “Hindu nationalist ’party. Gross inaptitude and corrupt practices of local BJP leadership made matters worse. Notwithstanding the tall claims that it had widened its base in Kashmir region, BJP is either naïve or in self-denial to think that loyal cadres are created by inducements alone. It is a known fact that in the past also many such ‘loyal cadres’, like Deen Mohd Cheetah, Abdul Rashid Kabli, Bashir Dada and even Rafiq Sadiq (son of former CM G. M. Sadiq), joined BJP only to ditch the party later. Using their new found political clout, most among them amassed huge wealth. After such a bitter experience, one does not understand where this newfound hope in BJP-RSS duo has sprung from? 

On its part, BJP set aside its national manifesto in J&K – one that calls for abrogation of Art 370- to endorse Agenda of Alliance with PDP in 2015. As with previous dispensations, Modi government too carries forward a muddle-headed response to Pakistan’s longstanding cross-border venality. It is now more than four years since Modi and BJP took charge of J&K affairs, they have little to show for it. All we have seen is increased reliance on Security Forces (SF) to keep a lid on the volatile situation there. While SF, especially the Army, have achieved huge successes against insurgents, politicians have not only abdicated their role but, where ever they could, even add to the fire. It needs no reiteration that SF can at best provide a congenial security environment for the political executive to step-in. Unfortunately, BJP has nothing new on their menu. Lt. Gen. Syed Ata Husnain (Retd.) aptly sums up the situation when he says ’23 terrorists killed in 13 days in Kashmir Valley, but final success is still illusive. If the shadow of a gun or the overhang of violence in Kashmir is to be done away with, the Army needs the state to step-in and run more effective information campaigns to counter radical ideology’.

Stitching an Opportunistic Political Alliance.

            By the time BJP government came to power in New Delhi in 2014, insurgency in the Valley was on the wane. Some political observers felt Modi, by over-ruling the hardliners within his own party and in the larger Sangh Parivar, had exhibited astute political acumen by agreeing to form a coalition government with Mufti Sayeed. These analysts thought he had rightly assessed his task to finesse a political settlement in the state.  That they were completely off the mark was proven by the events that subsequently unfolded in J&K.  By coming out of the coalition government it ran for three years, BJP appears to have abandoned the state for its electoral compulsion, leaving the dirty job for the SF. To retain deniability, political executive has cunningly prompted Army Chief to almost parrot a statement a day while itself choosing to stay away from the messy Kashmir situation it created.  Certainly, this is nervousness occasioned by the coming general elections. Collapse of the PDP-BJP government in J&K is a personal blow for the political persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Ramazan Ceasefire – An Unqualified Failure.

            Ramazan ceasefire was a retrograde step. Modi government refuses to learn from history. Earlier too, Vajpayee had failed in his attempt to broker peace with insurgents through a similar concession. Modi government’s offer of an olive branch, through Ramazan ceasefire, to those carrying guns was an unqualified failure.  During the period of ceasefire, May 17 to June 17, 2018, Pakistani Rangers and Pak-sponsored insurgents killed over 40 Indian soldiers and civilians and injuring many more. Besides, Pakistan violated ceasefire at will during Ramazan to displace over 1,00,000 civilians from border districts of Jammu region.  Abduction and murder of rifleman Aurangzeb and assassination of journalist Shujat Bukhari point to critical gaps in the security in the Valley. Outfits like JeT, JeM and HM used Ramzan break to regroup and re-strategize just when security forces had them on run. Increase in violence and in local recruitment are direct consequences of this unwise decision. By withdrawing the ceasefire Modi government had to eat a proverbial crow. 

A Pleading Interlocutor.  

Post withdrawal of ceasefire, other than resumption of counter-insurgency operations New Delhi has nothing new to offer. Dineshwar Sharma, New Delhi’s Interlocutor, represents government’s dovish line. Sharma has spent the better part of the year pleading to be heard by anyone who listens. The Hurriyat leaders treat him with disdain while Pakistan looks upon him as one more sign that India is a soft-state.  

International Focus Back on Kashmir.

By pulling out the support from a democratically elected government in Srinagar, the Modi government has pushed itself to the front line of international pressure. Internationally, Governor’s rule in the state leads to a perception that security forces virtually control governance levers. While dividends of this approach are difficult to foresee at this stage, New Delhi is heading for tougher times to handle international pressure in this regard. Some red flags over Kashmir situation have already been raised in recent months.

Recent UN Report. 

Even during 1990s, when militancy was at its peak in the Valley and when India was under intense international pressure, no UN agency called for an official enquiry into alleged Human Rights violations in Kashmir. Recently, Zeid Al Ra’ad Hussein, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has announced that he would urge the UN Council for Human Rights to conduct a “comprehensive independent international investigation into allegations of human rights violations” He also released the UN’s first-ever official report on such violations. It indeed is a failure of India’s diplomacy.

China Factor. 

Just when US administration under Donald Trump is evincing little interest in Kashmir, China is subtly turning up the heat on India.  Luo Zhaohui, China’s envoy to New Delhi, has already mooted a proposal for trilateral talks between China, India and Pakistan. Though the suggestion was made in context of increasing economic cooperation between the three countries under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) umbrella, ostensibly trade and economic activity would require peace in Kashmir. The sub-text of the envoy’s suggestion is for China to play a leading role in getting India and Pakistan to the dialogue table to resolve outstanding differences, including the dispute over Kashmir. Zhaohui’s suggestion is more a statement of China’s intent than his private opinion as New Delhi would like us to believe.

Appeasement Policy.

BJP government at the Centre has continued the very appeasement policy it accuses Congress or Congress lead coalitions of. During the present dispensation too, Valley is flush with liberal central funding as to drive the present Governor to compunction over the loot prevalent in Kashmir. State BJP leaders, either complicit or indifferent, overlooked the recent recruitment scam in J&K Bank or of some blue eyed making it to KAS without even appearing for the competitive examination. At organisational level too, BJP is trying to woo renegades to bolster their ranks in the Valley. All this happening for a price and whose money is BJP, as an organisation, spending in the Valley? The party has already ceded considerable support base to its political opponents in Jammu and Leh.

KPs Abandoned.

            After promising moon to the displaced community, BJP ditched KPs lock, stock and barrel. By patronising a few known faces from the community, BJP has imposed a gag on the community’s demand for economic and political empowerment.  Anointing a few from the community as legislators with an explicit caveat not to raise any genuine concerns of the community or using a few as pawns in political chicanery during local bodies’ elections in the Valley is no empowerment or a solace to the community. Not only abandoning the plans to resettle the displaced community in the Valley, announced with much fanfare, even filling-up posts set aside in 2009 for the displaced youth have not been fully subscribed so far. On the other hand, just to retain political good will of the Valley Sikhs, it is widely believed that job package for KP youth, who are still putting up in the Valley, is being torpedoed by BJP through the community Blacksheep in their cadres.  No one grudges employment for the Valley Sikhs but why at the cost of KP youth’s right? Not to speak of booking murderers who massacred KPs during early 1990s, BJP had the audacity to field one such tormentor as their party candidate from Tankipora during recently concluded Municipal elections in Srinagar.  The list of betrayals is endless. 

Looking Ahead.

            By falling back to counter-insurgency operations or imposing Governors rule, BJP appears to have run out of ideas to handle Kashmir. Modi’s muscular policy has, in fact, turned out to be one of compromises with the very forces and the ideology it set out to fight in first place. The third front, under the likes of Sajjad Lone- author of ‘Achievable Nationhood’ that BJP was openly patronising, may well turn out to be just another player fighting for the same political space in the Valley that is defined by competitive communalism and secessionism. Let us not forget that the by-polls to Anantnag parliamentary constituency have not been held ever since Mehbooba vacated her seat in 2016. Assembly and general elections are due soon. While agencies may gloat over successful conduct of local bodies’ polls, assembly and national elections invite a worldwide attention and their successful conduct would be a massive challenge to the establishment.  With ISIS already a reality in Kashmir, with or without BJP in the saddle in New Delhi, India seems in for a long haul in the Valley.